【資 料 名】 |
Future Scenario International Economics and Transport Based on the Delphi
Method (和文資料 :No.479) |
【概 要】 | For a discussion on a future vision of international transport infrastructure
and forecast on future trade and cargo demand, predicted figures for variables
in socio-economics and infrastructure should be given as prerequisites.
They will be simply estimated by extrapolation of past trends or based
somewhat on econometric methodology. However, these figures may be very
uncertain and difficult to estimate, especially in long-term forecasting
with large changes over time.In this report, a questionnaire survey was
conducted targeting many experts based on the Delphi method which seeks
to consolidate expert opinions by repeating questions to the same respondents.The
most probable future scenario for international economics and transport
in East Asia was summarized in order to contribute to the discussion on
the direction they will take in the future and how they ought to be.This
is a translation version in English of Technical Note of NILIM, No. 479
in principle. |
【担当研究室】 |
Port Sistems Division |
【執 筆 者】 |
SHIBASAKI Ryuichi,ISHIKURA Tomoki,ABE Motohisa,
WATANABE Tomihiro, YAMANE Takayuki,YOSHIDA Tsuneaki,
ABE Kazutomo,NEMOTO Toshinori,HANAOKA Shinya,ONO Kenji |
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